Operation in
NW not imminent!
Mohammad Jamil
After his meeting with General James N. Mattis, Commander US CENTCOM on
17th August, Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani categorically
dispelled the speculative reporting in foreign media, regarding joint
operations in North Waziristan. He had reiterated: “We might, if necessary,
undertake operations in NWA, in the timeframe of our choosing and
requirements.” It will never be a result of any outside pressure.
Yet some local commentriat and politicos started criticising civil and
military leadership. Of course Civil and military leaderships are on one page
in this regard that if at all operation is required to be undertaken, its
timings will be decided by Pakistan and not on America’s dictation. Anyhow,
final decision whether the operation would be undertaken or not will be made
keeping in view the Parliament’s resolution, which exhorts to negotiate with
the militants. But there is a proviso that in the event all other efforts fail
then the government could resort to military action. However, people of
Pakistan would have to be taken on board before any military operation is
launched in North Waziristan. The question is whether all strata of society is
in favour of such an operation?
The situation on ground is that business community is divided; one
group opposes the military operation taking the plea it could be disastrous for
the national economy. The other group wants military operation should be
undertaken to eliminate terrorism and extremism in every form and
manifestation, as in the presence of deteriorating law and order situation,
neither foreign nor domestic investment would be forthcoming. PML-N leader and
Leader of the Opposition in National Assembly expressed his concern over the
reports of military operation in North Waziristan, which is reflective of his
party’s position. Last month, speaking to the media he said that General Kayani
should abide by the resolution of the Parliament and All Parties Conference.
Chairman Steering Committee PML leader Salim Saifullah Khan warned that
military operation in North Waziristan will be disastrous for the country.
JUI-F, Jamat-e-Islami and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf also oppose any military
operation in North Waziristan or elsewhere. They believe that foreign forces
are occupying Afghanistan, but the worldwide view is that they are UN mandated
and supported by a legitimate Afghan government.
Pakistan is facing the dilemma in that it is facing the US plus 49
other countries, and will have to ensure that Pakistan’s soil is not used by
the Taliban for attacking American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. At the same
time, American and NATO forces will have to take measures that Tehrik-e-Taliban
fighters holed in Kunar and Nuristan are stopped from attacking Pakistan’s
security forces in areas bordering Afghanistan. The fact remains that these
areas are under the control of ISAF forces. The question however is whether
people of Pakistan would support an operation against, what they say Haqqani
network and other militant groups? Anyhow, people of Pakistan and different
strata of society would have to be taken on board, and there should be a
consensus on an operation if it is deemed necessary. However, the same should
be undertaken after taking into consideration certain pre-requisites including
the fall out of such an operation. Of course, measures would have to be taken
for temporarily accommodating the people migrating from that area, and again to
rehabilitate them after the operation.
According to a defence analyst, “well-planned covert operations must be
undertaken to isolate the militants from the locals, though a difficult
proposition till the time locals carry the impression that militants are waging
‘jihad’ against foreign forces in Afghanistan. Speedy rehabilitation and
initiation of political process after successful military operation are
imperatives for a permanent solution, which must be planned in advance. The
experience shows that successful military operations in Swat and South
Waziristan were not backed by the required political process for seeking
permanent solution. Therefore, any future military operation must be preceded
by creating the consensus so that political leadership takes full ownership and
media is effectively used to educate the masses”. During the last four years,
our forces undertook operations in Swat and South Waziristan, and since the
border on Afghan side was not sealed, the terrorists went across the border to
Afghanistan, and since then they are conducting terrorist activities against Pakistan
with impunity from their safe-havens in Afghanistan.
One would not know if it is trust deficit or pernicious designs of the
US and the NATO countries when they point their fingers of accusation towards
Pakistan either for not doing enough to rein in militants or for supporting and
training them. It is puerile nonsense even to imagine that Pakistan is out to
destabilize Afghanistan, as Pakistan can gain immensely from stable
Afghanistan. It will present tremendous business opportunities because Afghanistan
will be a bridge to Central Asian republics. If one dispassionately evaluates
and examines the prevailing situation it is not difficult to draw conclusion
that detractors of Pakistan have coalesced as their interests converge in the
region. It goes without saying that India would be the greatest beneficiary if
the gulf between two brotherly Muslim countries widens.
The US should review its policy and try to identify the causes for
violence in Afghanistan, and address the issues. According to Nathaniel Fick,
who served as a Marine officer in Afghanistan during the first year of the war
and was again sent to Afghanistan to do research for the Centre for a New
American Security said: “Based on what we heard while we were there, a lot of
these guys are involved in the insurgency for economic reasons first and
ideological reasons secondly”. There is no industry to create employment
opportunities to the jobless, and no serious effort has been made by various
governments to promote agriculture. This leaves the unemployed at the mercy of
militants who look after them better than the state because of their income
from drug-trafficking. During the last 11 years, warlords had a free hand to
amass wealth by encouraging poppy cultivation in Afghanistan and were also
involved in drug-trafficking under American and NATO forces’watch.
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