Afghanistan:
Surge to transition
Dr Raja Muhammad Khan
Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, while giving his
assessment of the US role in Afghanistan once said, “In the ultimate analysis,
if people of Afghanistan and their coming generations view US and coalition as
friends’, war can be won. If they think otherwise it would be considered as
lost.” After almost eleven years of military campaigning, the US led
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), could not subdue the Taliban
and other opposition groups in Afghanistan. Ironically, whilst today the
international and domestic support for the US-led GWOT is waning, Taliban have
grown stronger strategically and more influential politically, and pose a more
formidable challenge to both the legitimacy of the Afghan administration and
effectiveness of ISAF.
Although the international discourse on Afghanistan is dominated by the
calls for the removal of extra-regional forces by 2014, a satisfactory and
comprehensive political and military strategy in the Post-2014 scenario has
still not been agreed upon between the major players. The war-torn people of
Afghanistan need stability and peace in their homeland. Attaining such, a
situation would call for an indigenous Afghan led peace process, taking on
board all stakeholders in Afghanistan, supported by regional actors, NATO and
United States. On its part, Pakistan desires a political solution of Afghan
predicaments, while accommodating interests of all ethnic and religious groups.
With the rapidly approaching ISAF drawdown schedule (2014), the
strategic landscape of Afghanistan is witnessing a steady but profound shift.
Indeed, 2014 represents a transition point not only for Afghanistan but also
for the entire region. The political and strategic groundwork done within this
timeframe will largely determine the outcome for the future of Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, the progress of ISAF in Afghanistan with regards to
security and development in over the last decade is a source of pessimism. In
the words of Barnett R. Rubin, a US expert on Afghanistan and a Professor and
Director of Studies in the Centre on International Cooperation, New York
University; “The situation in Afghanistan has turned so far against the United
States, NATO, the international community, and those Afghans who originally
hoped that the post September 11 intervention would finally bring them a chance
for normal lives.
No country will benefit more from a secure and stable Afghanistan than
Pakistan. Pakistan seeks peaceful relations with both its Eastern and western
neighbours based on sovereign equality, mutual interests and dignity. It is
therefore in the national interest of Pakistan that Afghanistan should be
peaceful and stable. Within this broader framework, however, lie complexities
that Pakistan perceives as formidable obstacles to achieving peace in
Afghanistan.
Rather intermingling with its traditional culture, international
community and US should help Afghan people by bringing reforms on three key
areas. These include; governance system, security system and constitutional
reforms. Indeed, the abhorrent state of governance is the basic cause for
sufferance of Afghan masses. Corruption, nepotism, violation of merit and
dishonesty is the order of day in Afghanistan. Owing to these factors, caused
by the poor governance, there is a growing discontentment among the masses.
ISAF and United States need to enforce such reforms, which develop confidence
of the people over their form of governance. Otherwise, a common Afghan is
compelled to think that, ISAF is deliberately supporting a corrupt governance
system, as this suits them, rather suiting the masses. U.S has to address this
rapidly growing perception.
With respect to their security, there exists uncertainty among the
masses in Afghanistan. If they feel sacred from Taliban and other warlords,
they do not feel protected from the ISAF too. If Taliban have been brutal
towards Afghan masses, ISAF too has bombed many innocents during night raids,
marriage ceremonies and funeral processions. There is a need that, ISAF should
give sense of security to a common Afghan for restoring his confidence and
respect over this body of international troops.
The make up of Afghanistan is as such that, there are multiple power
centres in Afghanistan’s tribal society, which makes it a difficult task to
reconcile competing interests. How would then a structure of a strong central
government, as envisioned by ISAF will sustain is a big question. To be
acceptable by all Afghan factions, ethnic and religious groups, there is a need
to reform the current constitution, accommodating the tribal needs of the
country. ISAF and U.S need to extend full cooperation to incumbent Afghan
Government in this regard.
As the focus in Afghanistan shift from surge to transition, the
important prerequisite for the success in the country lie in the formulation,
focus and pace of reconciliation process in place. Pakistan sees the region in
transition as both an opportunity and peril in short and long term perspective.
What would be the outcome of this transition will depend upon the strategic
decisions taken today in favour of peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Pakistan finds itself at the centre of debate and desires to carve a
region where regional interests converge and stability thrives thereby creating
a space for security, economic growth and prosperity, long desired by the
people of Afghanistan, Pakistan and the region in general.
المشاركات
0 التعليقات:
إرسال تعليق