Iqbal
Khan
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi
is essentially a man in hurry, so far his foreign policy achievements have been
poor; now intoxicated by the contents of joint statement of his meeting with
President Obama he has jumped into another fray— fire power demonstration on
the Line of Control in Kashmir and the working boundary. Interestingly, two US
Senators, Timothy Kaine and King, currently visiting India have aptly suggested
that the United Nations could play a bigger role in the current tensions
between India and Pakistan. “I welcome the comments of the UN Secretary General
calling for diplomatic efforts and dialogue to end the conflict between India
and Pakistan,” King said. Kaine went a step further and said: “As a promoter of
peaceful resolution of disputes, the UN does a good job and in that sense their
participation should be welcomed.” These comments are pertinent as indeed
significant because there are at least 20 UN resolutions on Kashmir.
Ongoing Indian provocation seems to be
in reaction to forceful projection of the cause of Kashmiri people by Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif during his speech to the UN General Assembly. Ongoing
Indian violence along the working boundary is well understood in the context
that, historically, India resorts to such pressure tactics whenever Pakistan
raises Kashmir Issue at any international forum. Adviser to the Prime Minister
on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Mr Sartaj Aziz, has addressed a
letter to UNSG Mr. Ban Ki-moon, on October 11 regarding the current situation
of Kashmir dispute. Excerpts: “Excellency,I write to bring to your urgent
attention the deteriorating security situation along the Line of Control in
Jammu and Kashmir, as well as along the working boundary between Pakistan and
India, owing to deliberate and unprovoked violations of the ceasefire agreement
and cross-border firing by the Indian forces over the past weeks….in his
meeting with you last month, the Prime Minister [of Pakistan] had underlined
the need to implement UNSC resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir…Unfortunately,
India has adopted a policy that runs counter to its stated desire to engage in
a serious bilateral dialogue with Pakistan…During the period 1-10 October,
2014, 20 ceasefire violations along the Line of Control and 22 violations along
the Working Boundary were reported, resulting in 12 civilian casualties, 52
injured civilians and 9 injured military personnel on the Pakistani side…In
all, during 2014, 174 ceasefire violations along the Line of Control and 60
along the Working Boundary have been reported…Pakistan has exercised utmost
restraint and responsibility in responding to these provocations….Pakistan
appreciates your statement of 9 October in which you expressed concern about
the recent escalation of violence along the Line of Control between India and
Pakistan…Your statement is timely and significant given the historic role and
responsibility of the UN towards the situation in Jammu and Kashmir, where the
United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) also
continues to carry out its mandate related to the strict observance of the
ceasefire. Incidentally, as I write, UNMOGIP personnel are being escorted to
areas along the Line of Control, to observe first-hand the ongoing ceasefire
violations by the Indian side…Pakistan believes that the United Nations has an
important role to play in promoting this objective, including through your good
offices…and the crucial role of the UNMOGIP on ground, which needs to be
strengthened…I would also be grateful if you could have this letter circulated
as an official document of the Security Council”. Historically, India and
Pakistan have a poor track record of resolving any significant issue
bilaterally. Pakistan should continue to build on Adviser’s letter and ask the
UN for resumption of its rightful role, by tabling a UNSC resolution under
Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. Last week, while chairing National Security
Committee (NSC) meeting to review the situation in Kashmir, Nawaz Sharif said
Pakistan’s desire for peace should not be misunderstood and called upon India
to immediately honour the sanctity of the Line of Control (LoC) and working
boundary and halt firing. Earlier, Pakistan’s Defence Minister told India to
demonstrate caution and behave with responsibility. He reminded New Dehli that
Pakistan is capable of responding befittingly to Indian actions.
DG Rangers Punjab, in a recent
briefing to media at the working boundary, said that India is not just
violating ceasefire but is fighting a “small-scale war” with Pakistan. He
informed that between 2010 and 2014, Indian Border Security Force has used 3.48
million small firearms on the working boundary, and more than 30,000 mortar
shells have also been fired. As firing began on the first day of Eidul Azha,
thousands of shells have landed in Pakistan. On October 6 alone, over 51,000
small arms were fired across the boundary, while on October 7, more than 4,000
mortar shells were fired. Exceeding the previous number, India fired over 6,000
mortar shells on October 8. The ceasefire that was agreed 10 years ago has been
broken so frequently that its existence has become irrelevant. Over 35
civilians have died and thousands have fled their homes in the disputed region
of Kashmir. Escalation is a reflection of the current state of bilateral ties.
This fragility stems from the recent breakdown of Foreign Secretary level talks
between the two countries. These talks were arbitrarily and abruptly called off
by India on the pretext that Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India wanted to
have a preparatory meeting with the political leadership of Indian occupied Jammu
and Kashmir. Such meetings are a usual practice for the last two decades or so.
During his last visit to Indian held Kashmir on India’s Independence Day,
Narendra Modi adopted an aggressive tone that had fuelled war hysteria against
Pakistan. Modi rode a wave of rhetoric into office that promises a tough stance
on Pakistan. With an election coming up in Jammu and Kashmir, perhaps instances
which substantiate the BJP’s hawkish claims may fetch it more seats. Modi’s
rattling is aimed more at audiences back home:“Today, when bullets are being
fired on the border, it is the enemy that is screaming…The enemy has realized
that times have changed and their old habits will not be tolerated.”
Indian Defence Minister Arun Jaitley
reinforced the hawkish narrative. “If Pakistan persists with this adventurism,
our forces will make cost of this adventurism unaffordable for it.” Jaitley was
also quoted as ruling out talks with Pakistan. IHK Chief Minister Omar Abdullah
differed with Indian defence minister’s decision of not holding any flag
meetings between the two militaries during the current upsurge. “The government
says there won’t be any talks until Pakistan stops firing completely. It is
precisely when the firing is on that we need to talk when the guns go silent.” UN
SG has expressed his concern over the recent border clashes. “Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon is concerned about the recent escalation of violence along the Line
of Control between Pakistan and India,” said Ban’s spokesperson in a statement.
America has also urged Pakistan and India to resume the dialogue process; US
State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said, “US diplomats are in touch with
both governments to resolve their issues diplomatically and through
discussions”.Though the potential for any such conflict to spiral out of
control is low, it could lead to dangerous levels of escalation. It is in the
interest of both India and Pakistan to control the border incidents. If the
matter is left unattended, there is a likelihood of returning to pre 2003 era
when heavy guns boomed on both sides on almost daily basis.
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